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USDBRL Consolidating at Resistance, DI Swap Rates Rise

BRAZIL
  • Itaú BBA has been holding an event with analysts on the outlook for upcoming Brazilian crops, commodities and meat. Headlines have been filtering through throughout the morning, highlighting that Itaú are excited about short-term rates in Brazil, with one strategist detailing there is room for the Selic rate to fall to around 9%. While they believe the central bank will keep the current 50-bp easing pace, they note it is possible for an acceleration and buying BRL is their biggest conviction call today.
  • USDBRL is consolidating yesterday’s gains, having narrowed the gap to initial firm resistance at 4.9535, the Nov 10 high. A break of this level would ease the recent bearish technical pressure.
  • The above expectation growth data this morning has extended an upswing for DI rates with the curve shifting between 6-2bps across the curve.
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