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USDBRL Falls To Six-Month Lows Below 5.10

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL fell to more than six-month lows on Monday, continuing the downward trajectory for the pair and breaching 5.0970 support, 76.4% of the Jun - Oct 2021 bull phase.
    • Mid-month IPCA inflation due tomorrow will help investors assess the likelihood of there being one or two extra rate hikes, with a 100bp increase widely expected for March.
  • Brazil’s government is analysing a 400 reais increase per month for all public servants this year, a measure that would have a fiscal impact of 5 billion reais ($979 million) on the nation’s 2022 budget, O Globo newspaper said citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter. (BBG)
  • Brazil and Russia are the only emerging countries with benchmark interest rates above their neutral stances which is needed to bring inflation back to target, said Brazil’s central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto during an online event.
    • Global bottlenecks are a demand issue, not supply
    • Brazil power rate prices had recent small drop
    • Global inflation trend is still growing, with persistent energy shocks (BBG)
  • Treasury auctions Selic-linked LFT notes due 2025 and 2028 and inflation-linked NTN-B local notes due 2027, 2035 and 2060. The volume of notes will be released at 10:30am Brasilia time.

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