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USDBRL Firmer At Open, Rises 0.75%

BRAZIL
  • Despite the sharp risk off moves across global markets, the Brazilian real opened just marginally lower at the open with the softer dollar/lower US yields and higher domestic inflation expectations potentially offsetting the global risk headwinds. However, the pair has extended some strength in most recent trade, rising to 5.25 and up 0.75%.
  • In the latest BCB Focus survey, economists revised up their predictions for 2023 year-end inflation raised to 5.96% from 5.90%. However, they held their 2024 & 2025 year-end inflation forecasts at 4.02% and 3.80% respectively.
  • Brazil Investors continue to wait for details on country’s new fiscal framework; Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to present the new rule to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva this week, but no official date for any announcement has been scheduled.
  • Additionally, Haddad said last week that he already sent a list with candidates to become the next BCB monetary policy director and BCB economic policy director; the timing for that decision also remains unknown.
  • A quiet week on the domestic economic calendar, with the unemployment rate due Friday. Focus next week will be on the Copom decision due Wednesday March 22, shortly after the FOMC.
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