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USDBRL Holds Below 5.3518 Resistance, Fiscal Plan Awaited

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL traded to a fresh cycle high of 5.3409 on Friday. Despite initial resistance at 5.3073 being breached, the pair has held below 5.3518, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 2 bear leg.
    • With the pair reversing close to 2% lower amid a similar recovery for its Mexican counterpart the key medium-term technical parameters appear in place for USDBRL.
    • Key support to watch lies at 5.1012, the Mar 8 low. A break of this level would instead signal scope for a return to 4.9410, the Feb 2 low. Initial firm support lies at 5.2038, Thursday’s intraday low and just below the 50-day EMA.
  • With both the BCB decision and Friday’s inflation data out of the way, the focus this week will be on the Copom minutes and the Q1’23 Quarterly Inflation Report.
  • The economic team are also expected to accelerate the highly-anticipated fiscal plan, which could be announced this week after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva postponed a trip to China on health reasons.
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