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USDBRL Hovers Above 5.00, BTG Poll Sees Lula With 43% of 1st Round Votes

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL closed just above 5.00 after once again briefly breaching the psychological pivot point during Friday’s session. Higher oil prices to start the week will likely further underpin the Real, despite the marginal bid for the greenback on Monday.
    • Trend signals, such as moving average studies, remain bearish and further downside is likely near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 4.8934, the Jun 25, 2021 low. Resistance is unchanged at 5.2190, the Mar 2 high.
  • Brazil’s government is focused on additional measures to try to offset the impact of rising global prices on local inflation
  • Economy Minister Paulo Guedes reiterated last Friday that government will act in case fuel prices come under additional pressure
    • Minister also said government is mulling a cut of import and industrial taxes; Guedes also signaled that an increase of monthly payments to families in need through social program “Auxilio Brasil” or even the creation of another program is also on the table. (Bloomberg)
  • Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads voting intention for first round in Brazil election, according to a survey by Instituto FSB Pesquisa published by BTG Pactual.
    • Lula Has 43% of Votes for 1st Round, Bolsonaro 29%.
    • Ciro Gomes appears in 3rd place with 9%, followed by Sergio Moro with 8%.
    • In a runoff scenario, Lula would have 54% of the votes, while President Jair Bolsonaro would have 35%. (BBG)
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