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USDBRL Outperforms, Considered Corrective For Now

BRAZIL
  • Despite a lower open on the back of a more stable risk backdrop, USDBRL has been edging higher across the session, bolstered by the general upward bias for the greenback since the NY crossover. Spot is narrowing in on yesterday’s high of 4.9538, with market attention on more significant resistance just above.
  • However, the trend condition in USDBRL, remains bearish and the latest recovery across the week is considered corrective for now. Resistance to watch is at 4.9771, the Dec 13 high, and clearance of this level would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a recovery above the 5.00 handle. Key short-term support remains defined at 4.8032, the Dec 27 low. A break of this level is required to resume the downtrend.
  • As noted, economic activity data will cross tomorrow, which is expected to drop by 0.20% on the month but with the annual figure expected to rise to 2.0% Y/y.
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