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USDBRL Remains Rangebound, Feb Services PMI Due

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real continues to trade in the familiar 4.93-5.00 short-term range that its has been in for much of the last month, driving one-month implied volatility down towards multi-year lows. USDBRL conditions remain bullish, however, and attention is on key resistance at 5.0017, the Jan 23 high, which was recently pierced. Initial key support to watch lies at 4.9025, the Jan 26 low.
  • Earlier, the latest BCB focus survey revealed that analysts still expect USDBRL to end this year at 4.93. The survey also showed another increase in 2024 GDP forecasts, with analysts now expecting growth of 1.77% this year, up from 1.60% three weeks ago. CPI inflation forecasts for this year were trimmed to 3.76%, from 3.80%, but the year-end SELIC forecast was left unchanged at 9.0%. Later today, services and composite PMI data for February are due at 1300GMT(0800ET). Finance Minister Haddad is due to take part virtually in Goldman Sachs’ annual Brazil macro conference at 1515GMT.
  • In other news, BNDES president Aloizio Mercadante said yesterday that it could sell assets if it is for new investment. It was also reported that development notes issuance may happen this year if Brazil’s development credit notes bill is approved by congress.
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