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USDBRL Technical Conditions Deteriorate, Copom Awaited

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real has surged throughout the second half of January and technically looks set to extend this recent strength. Relative outperformance in recent weeks in the face of a stronger dollar has been noticeable and yesterday’s bounce in risk was a catalyst to break some important USDBRL supports.
    • With the 200-day moving average giving way, the most noticeable support was 5.3249, 50.0% of the Jun - Oct rally last year, which has also been breached.
  • The Copom are widely expected to increase the Selic rate by another 150bps to 10.75% on Wednesday, bringing real rates into positive territory.
  • Additionally, firmer metals prices are contributing to the bolstered sentiment for EMFX.
  • Former President Lula on the wires this morning in an interview with Super Radio Tupi. He said that when former Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin decides which party he will join, it will be possible to decide the alliance to contest presidential election in October.
    • “When I define my candidacy and he decides his party, who knows, maybe we can achieve a political alliance”
  • With congress back from recess, investors will watch more closely how negotiations to reduce fuel taxes evolve; President Jair Bolsonaro said he is waiting for congress to come up with a bill to allow him to cut the federal tax on diesel and cooking gas.

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