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USDCAD At Fresh YTD Highs, Further Overbought Ahead Of CPI

CANADA
  • An extension of equities souring further (S&P e-mini now -1.2%) and gold at new session highs sees USDCAD hit 1.3792 for fresh YTD highs.
  • It’s through Friday’s 1.3787, opening 1.3855 (Nov 10, 2023) after which lies a key 1.3899 (Nov 1, 2023 high).
  • As noted at the tail end of the last week, the pair moves further into overbought territory on a 14-day RSI basis. It was last overbought (for any meaningful period of time) in Aug’23 and before that Mar’23.
  • The climb comes despite a reversal of an earlier further decline in Can-US yield differentials, at least for 2s. (The 2Y diff is now +3bps vs 1-1.5bps lower after strong US data and softer second tier CAD data). Differentials are still historically depressed though, at -70bps for 2s and -88bps for 10s.
  • Tomorrow sees an important day, with Canadian CPI, BoC’s Macklem in a fireside chat with Powell and then the government’s Budget.

Source: Bloomberg

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