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USDCAD Climbs With Equities Sliding

CANADA
  • USDCAD has quickly climbed to a session high of 1.3230 as WTI and in particular equities are under pressure with the S&P e-mini now down -1.25% intraday.
  • It approaches yesterday’s pre-FOMC high of 1.3238 after which sits 1.3243 (Jul 18 high) and 1.3291 (50-day EMA). The bear threat is still seen as present, with a trigger at 1.3093 (Jul 14 low), but decent option expiry at higher strikes tomorrow could see some further pressure against that with $826m at 1.3280 and $376m at 1.3250.
  • The BoJ is clearly in focus overnight but tomorrow sees important data releases, with US Q2 ECI and June PCE (today’s quarterly data showed a large bias lower for core PCE) plus CAD monthly GDP.
  • On the latter, analysts expect 0.3% M/M for May, sitting on the 0.4% from the advance. Services will have to do some heavy lifting for the June advance after a string of disappointing sales prints (retail at 0.0%, mfg at -2.2% and wholesale ex petroleum at -4.4%) and with hours worked only +0.1% after -0.4% in May.
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