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Free AccessUSDCAD Drifts Closer To Key Support Ahead Of Jobs Reports
- USDCAD has drifted lower today to ~1.3610, helped by an intraday recovery in WTI.
- It extends yesterday’s clearance of initial support on softer US data, but without the conviction today to test a key level at 1.3590 (May 15 low) on Independence Day.
- Earlier today, a dovish PMI report with the softest input cost inflation since early 2021 had limited impact ahead of both US and Canadian jobs reports tomorrow.
- Consensus looks for a further drift higher in the Canadian u/e rate in June but also another acceleration in Y/Y wage growth after the prior month’s surprise increase.
- Option expiry for the NY cut is limited at nearby strikes.
- Latest CFTC data show that, for futures at least, CAD net shorts built even further early last week despite the stronger than expected May CPI report. Net shorts at 44% of open interest (following two weeks at 42% after the BoC’s first cut of the cycle) are the largest since mid-2017 and before that 2013.
Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.