USDCAD flirts with the C$1.3200.......>

DOLLAR-CANADA: USDCAD flirts with the C$1.3200 level, resting on channel base

support. Any move through here opens the 200-hma & Aug 5 low at C$1.3184/78, a

break brings the 21-dma & 50-mma back into view at C$1.3126/22.

- Busier schedule towards the end of the week in Canada with main focus on

Housing Starts and Employment data on Friday. RBC see housing starts moderating

to a more sustainable 208K annualized level in July after rising to 245.7K in

June. They have also pencilled in a 5K increase in employment in July, which

would be the second consecutive sub-trend outcome after a 2.2K decline in June.

Still, employment has increased close to 250K in the first half of 2019 in this

report, largely mirrored by the less timely establishment (SEPH) survey (~180K

in the five months to May). These outsized gains do suggest to us that a

material negative number remains possible, though GDP growth has picked up

alongside. Average hourly earnings for permanent employees spiked to +3.6% y/y

in June and we will be watching it closely to see if it is persistent (SEPH wage

growth has also moved higher).