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USDCAD Holds Most Of Latest Step Towards Bull Trigger With BoC Up

CANADA
  • USDCAD is currently 10-15 pips below the new recent high of 1.3800 seen overnight.
  • It extended yesterday’s breach of prior highs at 1.3775 and cleared resistance at 1.3792 (Jun 11 high) for another strong step towards the bull trigger at 1.3846 (Apr 16 high).
  • Next meaningful support meanwhile isn’t until a key 1.3590 (May 16 low).
  • The 14-day RSI at 66.4 isn’t yet in overbought territory although CAD net shorts were at historical extremes last week (47% of open interest) in positioning that we feel could limit near-term sensitivity to any dovish surprises and at risk that the Bank is less dovish than some expect in the upcoming decision.
  • Whilst there isn’t any particularly heavy expiry at single strikes, the pipeline is crowded to capture post-BoC price action with the most salient strikes at: 1.3785-00 (C$277mln), 1.3730-50 (C$613mln) and 1.3680-00 (C$431mln).

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