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USDCAD Looks Through Retail Sales, Sizeable Expiry Ahead At Lower Strikes

CANADA
  • USDCAD for now looks through retail sales data that were close to expectations overall but included some stronger details (more from our policy team previously plus a quick summary below).
  • It holds the ~20 pip dip off earlier highs of 1.3589 along with broader FX moves.
  • Defining triggers sit either side of spot, but the day’s further climb leaves it closer to a bull trigger at 1.3614 (Mar 19 high). To the downside, a bear trigger at 1.3420 (Mar 8 low).
  • In the near-term, the upcoming NY cut sees heavy option expiry, skewed lower. Of the more notable nearby strikes: 1.3475 (490mln), 1.3480 (1.22bn), 1.3500 (856mln), 1.3520 (584mln) and 1.3610 (621mln)
  • Overall sales broadly in line at -0.3% M/M (cons/advance -0.4) in Jan – heavily impacted by cold weather - after +0.9% M/M whilst the February advance was for only a tepid +0.1% M/M.
  • However, January volumes at least firmed 0.2% M/M whilst there was a sizeable beat for nominal ex auto sales at +0.5% (cons -0.4) after +0.6%.
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