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Brainard On CPI Report

FED
  • Soon to be Vice Chair Brainard talking to WSJ: On CPI, it's notable that core goods inflation moderated more than I had anticipated. … It’s very welcome to see the moderation in this category and I’ll be looking to see whether we continue to see moderation in the months ahead.
  • We did see some upward pressure in core services and in particular in energy-price sensitive airfares but there was some moderation in rent which was also notable. I wouldn’t take a lot of signal from any one month of data but I’ll be watching closely for a continuation in this pattern with moderating core inflation and a declining number of categories seeing outsized increases in the months ahead.
  • Fiscal support is a substantial drag this year, financial conditions are already tightening.
  • However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine skews inflation risk to the upside and China is continuing its zero Covid policy which could be another inflationary shock.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures sit towards low end of post-CPI range with 212bps of hikes to year-end.
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