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USDCAD Nears Resistance, CAD REER Trending Lower

CANADA
  • USDCAD at 1.3760 has built on yesterday’s increase, aided by today’s decline in the S&P 500 e-mini.
  • The pair moves closer to resistance at 1.3785 (Apr 30 high) after which lies a key 1.3846 (Apr 16 high) before Nov 2023 levels.
  • There’s no notable option expiry at today’s NY cut, although there is a heavy $2bn at 1.3680-85 on Fri after the Canadian jobs report.
  • Oil pushing lower on the day also hinders CAD although the broader USD strength sees it outperform its high beta peers.
  • The weakness vs the USD still weighs when looking in real effective terms though, with Citi’s broad index back at mid-April levels and circa -2.5% below both five- and ten-year averages.

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