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USDCAD Range Bound Despite Risk-Off Moves

CANADA
  • Oil up 10% today counts for relatively little as USDCAD up +0.25% only modestly underperforms BBDXY up +0.5%.
  • USDCAD touches new session highs of 1.2705 in what’s been a surprisingly narrow range today, but remains well within the post-BOC/FOMC range, which was preserved until spiking to a high of 1.2878 on the first day of the Russian invasion.
  • Both Canada and US have seen a heavy reduction in hikes priced today with 25bp this month no longer fully priced, but the US has seen a larger unwinding further out.
  • That previous high of 1.2878 remains first resistance, whilst key short-term support remains at 1.2636 (Feb 10 low).

USDCADSource: Bloomberg

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