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USDCAD Resisting Modest Broader USD Weakness

CANADA
  • USDCAD has largely trended sideways today despite broader BBDXY weakness, consolidating yesterday’s swift rise on risk-off sentiment.
  • There has been very little impact from softer than expected retail sales. Sales were up +0.7% M/M (cons 1.2%) with subdued volumes of just +0.2% M/M in Nov, whilst the Dec flash showed a much weaker -2.1% M/M, a possible Omicron impact but with no details to go off.
  • At 1.2519, it remains some way off initial resistance of 1.2621 (Dec 31 low and 20-day EMA) and above support of 1.2448 (76.4% retracement of the Oct – Dec rally) having got close to testing it yesterday.
  • As an input for Wednesday’s BoC decision, it’s currently -3.4% from a peak on Dec 20 but only 1% lower than prior to the last BoC decision on Dec 8.
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