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USDCAD Sees A New Low With Two CAD Risk Events Ahead

CANADA
  • USDCAD has nudged to new session lows of 1.3653 having sat around 1.3660 for the past 90 minutes at lows since Jun 4 (the day before the BoC cut for the first time this cycle), i.e. with China EV tariff headlines having little immediate impact.
  • CAD fares well across the board despite the broader USD weakness, ahead of two important risk events with BoC’s Macklem speaking later (text released 1330ET, speech starts 1345ET & media Q&A 1500ET) and CPI tomorrow.
  • The trend decline in USDCAD from the recent high of 1.3792 came after CAD net shorts reached particularly elevated levels at 42% of OI in CFTC data for their most exposed since 2017 (last week’s update due late today after a holiday delay).
  • Recent piercing of support sees the next key support at 1.3590 (May 16 low) before 1.3547 (Apr 9 low) whilst to the upside lies 1.3792 (Jun 11 high).
  • Tomorrow's option expiry is light, offering little in the way of directional input.

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