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USDCAD Sitting Close To Recent Lows With BoC Ahead

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits less than 15 pips of yesterday’s low, little changed on the day at 1.2642 after unwinding an earlier move higher as CAD resists USD strength for a second day.
  • The cross has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and cleared 1.2660 (61.8% retrace of the Apr5–May12 bull run). It next eyes 1.2629 (yday low), clearance of which could potentially open 1.2562 (76.4% retrace of the same run).
  • Risk-sentiment driven flows dominate and likely continue to do so following the BoC decision but as noted in the MNI BoC Preview, some analysts see a constructive outlook for CAD over the longer term.
  • Barclays see USDCAD grinding lower over the medium-term, ING potential for market instability extending into the summer to keep the pair near 1.27-1.28 before a break below 1.25 in the latter part of the year, and BofA a year-end forecast of 1.23.

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