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USDCAD Testing Supports, But Without Much Conviction For Now

CANADA
  • USDCAD briefly dipped back to 1.3315/1.3316 for the second time today being lifting 15 pips, probing Friday’s low of 1.3313 that had pushed through Wednesday’s post-BOC 1.3322.
  • Further progress could be slow here with a key support seen at 1.3302 (Apr 14 low) required to be cleared to strengthen bearish conditions.
  • Friday’s CFTC positioning showed some volatility in CAD net shorts albeit only to Tue before the BoC’s hawkish surprise, falling back to -22.8% OI from -16.6% the week prior and -30.5% before that.
  • Post BoC, analysts see favorable CAD conditions more broadly. This from GS: “Overall, while market pricing is fairly full, additional BoC hikes should still support CAD. As we’ve flagged, short EUR/CAD and long CAD/JPY look like the best expressions to capture a more hawkish BoC combined with a stronger Dollar, though long CAD/JPY leans slightly more pro-growth.”
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