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USDCAD Unwinds US CPI Hit On Sliding Oil

CANADA
  • USDCAD is holding around the 1.29 mark with oil down almost -5% from renewed expectations of the Iran nuclear deal being revived adding to an already soft undertone from weaker than expected China data.
  • At 1.2899 (+0.9%), it has cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA (1.2855) and sharply reversed the post US CPI slide, opening 1.2985 (Aug 5 high) from the snap reaction higher following stellar US payrolls.
  • Growing negative correlation to oil (-0.54 on 20-day rolling) helps drive large moves but CAD outperforms AUD and NZD. Continued net bullish sentiment for CAD, with CFTC spec net longs increasing to a fresh post-Jul’21 high of 14.8% OI as of Tue, might help but is equally likely some payback after underperforming last week.

Source: Bloomberg

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