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USDCLP Extends Slide, Goldman Sachs Say Limit To What BCCh Can Accomplish

CHILE
  • USDCLP has fallen another 3% from the open, extending the steep 7% drop on Friday, following the announcement of the Chilean central bank’s currency intervention program.
    • CLP gains have been exacerbated today from the firmer risk backdrop across global equity and commodity markets.
    • Indeed, copper prices are rallying 2% in London amid renewed efforts to stabilize China’s real estate sector, further boosting the short-term outlook for the peso.
  • Regarding the fx intervention program, Goldman Sachs noted this is a welcome development, in particularly, if coupled with a decisive conventional monetary policy strategy.
  • However, there are limits to what the central bank can accomplish given the very challenging domestic and external backdrop and when taking into account the limited amount of FX reserves (the Reserve Adequacy Ratio is not high; currently at the lower end of the IMF recommended range).
  • As such, the quest of the central bank to anchor a drifting currency and bend the inflation curve down would greatly benefit from a decisive contribution from fiscal policy and steps to reduce persistently high political and policy risk and uncertainty.

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