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USDCNY Approaching ST Key Resistance At 6.8125

CHINA
  • Rate cuts and weaker-than-expected economic data have been weighing on the Chinese yuan recently, with USDCNY constantly testing new highs after finding support at its 50DMA last week.
  • The pair is approaching its key ST resistance at 6.8125, which was the high reached in mid-May following the sharp Yuan depreciation in April.
  • We recently saw that while equities have been recovering sharply in the US and the Euro area, with the SP500 and Eurostoxx50 up 17% and 12% respectively in the past month, China stocks have remained subdued amid falling growth expectations.
  • The ‘great reopening’ narrative quickly faded away after Covid cases started to rise again, therefore limiting the upside gain on domestic risky assets and on the CNY.
  • A break above the 6.8125 level would open the door for a move up to 6.8450, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 6.3070 – 7.1780 range.

Source: Bloomberg

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