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USDCOP Edges Back Below 4,000 Amid Oil Rally

COLOMBIA
  • The impressive move in oil prices over the past two weeks continues to underpin a resilient Colombian Peso, which has prompted USDCOP to edge back below 4000 in recent sessions.
  • Additionally, last week’s above-estimate inflation data has prompted analysts to reduce the probability of BanRep initiating an easing cycle this month, further bolstering the COP.
  • Despite both the President and Finance Minister’s rhetoric surrounding the need for an imminent boost for the economy (via monetary policy), a 35bp adjustment higher in one-year IBR swap rates since the data confirms the market expect to see the central bank on hold for a longer period of time.
  • Goldman Sachs have noted that in the current macro backdrop, they continue to recommend longs in COP and BRL funded out of CNY.
  • August consumer confidence may be released today, however, production and retail sales figures may be more closely monitored on Friday.
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