MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 7

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MNI JAPAN DEC HOUSEHOLD SPENDING +2.7% Y/Y; NOV -0.4%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -174 BCF TO 2,397 BCF JAN 31 WK

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

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GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

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FOREX: USD/JPY Looks to Pause Weekly Decline

FOREX
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  • JPY slippage stands out early Friday, with USD/JPY managing to pause the week-long decline to bounce off an overnight low of 150.96. Newsflow and data releases are thin early Friday, with price action led by position squaring and consolidation before payrolls. A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off expands the downside range, however, note that the pair has entered oversold territory.
  • AUD, NZD trade furtively well, cementing much of this week's rally. AUD/USD looks to secure a close above the 50-dma - a possible S/T signal that the bottom is in at 0.6088 for now, and only a renewed hawkish turn from the Fed or protracted trade war would see prices retest these levels in the immediate short-term.
  • GBP remains a focus following yesterday's BoE decision and the dovish vote split - but strength for GBP/USD today underscores the belief that while the February vote saw a clear interest for rate cuts, the medium-term trajectory for rates is less one-dimensional, leaving less space for easy policy through into the early part of next year. Gains for the pair this week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and delivered a print above 1.2500, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high.
  • The coming payrolls report will naturally be the market focus - but it's not just the headline employment change that should take attention. The comprehensive release of revisions for monthly payroll gains are expected to revise down the sharp pace of gains from 2024 by around 700k, with new population controls for the household survey also set to feature.
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  • JPY slippage stands out early Friday, with USD/JPY managing to pause the week-long decline to bounce off an overnight low of 150.96. Newsflow and data releases are thin early Friday, with price action led by position squaring and consolidation before payrolls. A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off expands the downside range, however, note that the pair has entered oversold territory.
  • AUD, NZD trade furtively well, cementing much of this week's rally. AUD/USD looks to secure a close above the 50-dma - a possible S/T signal that the bottom is in at 0.6088 for now, and only a renewed hawkish turn from the Fed or protracted trade war would see prices retest these levels in the immediate short-term.
  • GBP remains a focus following yesterday's BoE decision and the dovish vote split - but strength for GBP/USD today underscores the belief that while the February vote saw a clear interest for rate cuts, the medium-term trajectory for rates is less one-dimensional, leaving less space for easy policy through into the early part of next year. Gains for the pair this week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and delivered a print above 1.2500, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high.
  • The coming payrolls report will naturally be the market focus - but it's not just the headline employment change that should take attention. The comprehensive release of revisions for monthly payroll gains are expected to revise down the sharp pace of gains from 2024 by around 700k, with new population controls for the household survey also set to feature.