However, given the large estimation uncertainties, "such ranges should be viewed as merely indicative", and alternative methodological ranges were offered. Although the bulletin is not formally adopted by the Governing Council, President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone have used the new indicative range in recent communications as opposed to the previous estimated range of 1.75% to 2.50%.
Despite the uncertainties in measuring r*, estimates still suggest it has ticked up since the pandemic, although at levels measurably below those prevailing before the global financial crisis, pointing to still lingering lower-bound risks in the event of sufficiently large disinflationary shocks. A 2024 staff report on r* pointed to an indicative post-pandemic increase of 30bp. The 2025 report does not point to a specific level, but given the current ranges, is not believed to be significantly different.
