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USDJPY Reverses Fed-Inspired Gains, Prints Fresh Weekly Lows

JPY
  • USDJPY has posted an impressive turnaround, extending to fresh session lows in recent trade and reversing the entirety of the Fed inspired gains overnight.
  • The pair printed as high as 148.46 overnight, briefly piercing noted resistance at the Nov 4 2022 high but failed to garner any momentum across the APAC session. A subsequent move back below the 148.00 handle has kept the path of least resistance as lower, with pressure on equities and lower front-end US yields providing additional JPY tailwinds.
  • The pair is now breaking to fresh weekly lows below 147.48 as we approach the Bank of Japan decision overnight. On the downside, initial firm support doesn’t come in until 145.91, the Sep 11 low.
  • Considering the adjustments made to the BOJ’s YCC framework in July, our analysis aligns with the prevailing consensus, anticipating that the BOJ will maintain its existing policies in the upcoming announcement, including the short-term interest rate remaining at -0.1%. Our full preview of the decision is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/55844/BOJ%20Preview%20-%20Sep%202023.pdf

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