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JPY: USD/JPY Tracks Recent Ranges, Japan Mkts Return, Wages Data Later This Week

JPY

USD/JPY tracks slightly firmer in early Monday dealings, the pair last near 157.45/50. Friday's session delivered a modest 0.15% gain for yen, as broader USD gains experienced a consolidation. Yen lagged other G10 currencies though (except against CAD). For USD/JPY, we track within ranges seen in 2025 so far, with recent highs at 157.85. Late 2024 highs in the pair were just under 158.10. 

  • The broader technical backdrop is still considered supportive for the pair, with moving average studies still in bull mode. A clear break above 158.00 could see the July 12 high of 159.45 targeted. On the downside, the 20-day EMA support zone is sub 156.00.
  • Japan markets return today after being out for the final 3 days of last week. The local data calendar just has Dec PMI revisions on tap today. On Thursday Nov labor cash earnings data is released, which will be of greater focus.
  • The generally firmer US yield backdrop, more so at the back end of the curve, likely supported USD/JPY dips through the tail end of last week. Yield differential trends are sit below late 2024 highs though for the 2yr and 10yr differential. The rise in US equities on Friday likely weighed on yen against key crosses, but AUD/JPY is still sub 98.00. 
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USD/JPY tracks slightly firmer in early Monday dealings, the pair last near 157.45/50. Friday's session delivered a modest 0.15% gain for yen, as broader USD gains experienced a consolidation. Yen lagged other G10 currencies though (except against CAD). For USD/JPY, we track within ranges seen in 2025 so far, with recent highs at 157.85. Late 2024 highs in the pair were just under 158.10. 

  • The broader technical backdrop is still considered supportive for the pair, with moving average studies still in bull mode. A clear break above 158.00 could see the July 12 high of 159.45 targeted. On the downside, the 20-day EMA support zone is sub 156.00.
  • Japan markets return today after being out for the final 3 days of last week. The local data calendar just has Dec PMI revisions on tap today. On Thursday Nov labor cash earnings data is released, which will be of greater focus.
  • The generally firmer US yield backdrop, more so at the back end of the curve, likely supported USD/JPY dips through the tail end of last week. Yield differential trends are sit below late 2024 highs though for the 2yr and 10yr differential. The rise in US equities on Friday likely weighed on yen against key crosses, but AUD/JPY is still sub 98.00.