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USDMXN A Touch Softer Ahead of Key Event Risk

MEXICO
  • The peso has extended a short-term bounce Wednesday morning, which sees USDMXN edge towards initial support at 17.0566, the Jan 22 low, as we approach the plethora of US data and the FOMC January meeting. On the local docket, Mexico’s central bank releases net outstanding loans data for December at 9am. Loans reached 5.99 trillion pesos the month before.
  • Weaker-than-expected GDP data on Tuesday opens the door for Banxico to potentially adopt a more dovish stance at its Feb 8th monetary policy meeting. Despite the softer print, deputy finance minister Yorio stated the slowdown does not affect the budget for 2024. Furthermore, Itaú expect activity to continue to grow at an above trend growth of 2.8% in 2024, supported by an expansive fiscal stance with benefits from nearshoring also supporting activity this year.
  • US ADP kicks off the US docket before ECI and the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. The MNI Chicago PMI rounds off the data docket. Focus then swiftly turns to the Jan FOMC decision. While no change is expected on rates, there is a good chance that the forward guidance will be amended to remove the tightening bias in favour of a more neutral stance, in light of recent disinflationary progress.
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