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USDMXN Breaches The 200-day MA, TIIE Swaps Curve Bear Flattens

MEXICO
  • As noted, selling pressure this week resulted in a break of 20.2514, 61.8% of the Sep - Oct rally. Furthermore, price has also traded below the 50-day EMA and attention is on 20.0975, the 76.4% retracement. This also coincides with the last remaining moving average of note, 100-day which resides at 20.1057.
  • Additionally, BRLMXN continues its descent towards the year's lows at 3.5040, retreating another 1.5% in today's session.
  • Despite the bi-weekly headline CPI figures printing broadly in line, the slightly above estimate reading and the higher core print will likely keep the pressure on the Banxico board to deliver another rate hike in November.
  • As a reminder, they recently continued to hike rates with a marginal hawkish shift from a 3-2 vote in favour in August, to a 4-1 vote in September.
  • The TIIE swaps curve has risen between 4-10 bps in a bear flattening move.
  • Economic activity, trade balance and Q3 GDP data headline the domestic docket next week.
  • *Mexico TIIE Swaps:
    • 1-yr +10 bps at 6.47%
    • 2-yr +8 bps at 7.03%
    • 5-yr +6 bps at 7.50%
    • 10-yr +4 bps at 7.75

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