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USDMXN Dips To Fresh Cycle Lows

MEXICO
  • USDMXN has tested new multi-year lows in early trade this week, as the peso continues to garner support from the recent Banxico minutes, which tilted to the hawkish side. USDMXN dipped to 16.4395, the lowest for the pair since late 2015. A bearish theme remains intact with immediate downside attention on 16.4218, and then 16.3256.
  • On the data front, Friday’s Citibanamex survey revealed that analysts expect Banxico to cut rates next at its June MPC meeting, following a pause in May. The year-end interest rate forecast was raised to 9.625%, from 9.50%, with the 2025 year-end rate forecast increasing to 7.625%, from 7.50%. The 2024 year-end CPI forecast also edged up to 4.12%, from 4.10%.
  • Today, nominal wage data for March may cross, following a reported 0.5k decline in formal job creation last month (vs. +156.4k prior). March CPI data will be published tomorrow.
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