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USDMXN Edging Lower Amid Better Risk Backdrop

MEXICO
  • The USDMXN pullback is potentially significant because it means that resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 18.00, has remained intact - for now. This is a key short-term hurdle for bulls where a break would signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend direction is down and a continuation lower would expose the bear trigger at 17.4207, May 15 low. A break of this level would open 17.0507, the Apr 29 2016 low.
  • Mexico’s 1Q GDP is expected to have increased 3.8% y/y, down from the preliminary reading of +3.9%, according to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Data released at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • Q1 GDP NSA Y/y, est. 3.8%, prior 3.9%
    • Q1 GDP SA Q/q, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1%
    • Q1 GDP Nominal Y/y, prior 10.3%
    • March Economic Activity IGAE M/m, est. -0.13%, prior 0.14%
    • March Economic Activity IGAE Y/y, est. 3.20%, prior 3.84%
    • Separately, Pemex to report production and exports data for April.

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