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USDMXN Extends Bounce Above 17.00 as Presidential Election Beckons

MEXICO
  • The impressive move higher for US yields this week and associated equity weakness continue to weigh on the emerging market FX complex, pressuring the Mexican peso towards the worst levels of the month. USDMXN traded as high as 17.1303 overnight and has since consolidated above the 17.00 handle ahead of the US data.
    • For bulls, resistance at 17.3860, the Jan 17 high, marks an important reversal trigger and a clear break of it, if seen, would be bullish and signal scope for a climb towards 17.6365, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 6 - Apr 9 bear leg.
  • Mexico's presidential campaign closes with Claudia Sheinbaum holding a 21-point lead over her closest rival, Xóchitl Gálvez, according to data aggregated by the Bloomberg Poll Tracker. Even with her advantage narrowing from as much as 35 points back in January, that's still a very comfortable margin in the world of electoral forecasting, particularly with only a few days to go until the Sunday vote.
  • Unemployment (1300BST/0800ET) is expected to have increased slightly to 2.54% in April from 2.28% the month before, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The finance ministry is also expected to sell the following:
    • MXN1b of floating bonds due April 3, 2025
    • MXN1b of floating bonds due May 20, 2027
    • MXN1b of floating bonds due April 19, 2029
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