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USDMXN Extends Intra-Day Advance as US Yields Shift Higher

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso is the notable underperformer in Latam today, as upward pressure on US yields continues to weigh on the EM currency basket (5-year yields have reached fresh year-to-date highs in recent trade). Additionally, the holiday in Mexico could be impacting liquidity and potentially exacerbating the moves somewhat.
  • USDMXN (+0.76%) should remain in focus as we approach interest rate decisions in the US and Mexico this week. Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, Banxico is due to hold a key monetary policy meeting on Thursday, when it is broadly expected to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 11%. As noted earlier, support for USDMXN at 16.6262 has held well and remains the key short-term technical level.
  • Overall, the USDMXN trend condition remains bearish following its recent sell-off and a break of that 16.6262 support would open 16.4218, the 1.236 projection of the Dec 5 - Jan 8 - Jan 17 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is at 16.8969, the 20-day EMA.

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