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USDMXN Performs Relatively Well, Banxico Statement Eyed

MEXICO
  • The post-fed greenback weakness has not had a significant impact on USDMXN, which sits just 0.45% lower since yesterday’s release. Markets will have a degree of attention on the Banxico decision/statement later today at 1900GMT/1400ET.
    • Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The recent breach of support at 17.2833, the Nov 3 low, confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle and opens 16.9988, the Sep 20 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a move towards 16.6262, the Jul 28 low. Initial resistance is at 17.5811, 38.2% of the Oct 20 - Nov 27 downleg.
  • Close to all analysts are expecting Banxico to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 11.25%, in line with the current guidance from the committee. However, given the improving core inflation data and the most recent communication from multiple board members, markets will analyse this month’s statement for further clues on when easing could be initiated in 2024.
  • * The full MNI preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/58462/MNI%20Banxico%20Preview%20-%20December%202023.pdf
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