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Heading South




Breaches Key Short-Term Support


Late SOFR/Treasury Option Trade

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  • With the concerns over the Russia/Ukraine conflict pushing strong preference for ‘safe assets’ such as the USD, selling pressure on CEE currencies have been intense in the past two days.
  • USDPLN is up 20 figures this week, approaching its ST resistance at 4.2130 (November 23 high).
  • Depreciating PLN keeps supporting inflation expectations and therefore is putting NBP policymakers in a difficult position as more tightening will continue to weigh on the economic activity.
  • Recent geopolitical tensions have ‘ruined’ central banks and politicians’ effort to tame inflation and increased the probability of an economic downturn in the coming 6 to 12 months.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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