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USDPLN Trading Sideways Ahead of NBP Meeting

POLAND
  • In the past few months, the significant rise in inflation has increased disagreements over the trajectory of short term rates; while some policymakers are concerned that the inflationary pressures will remain elevated in 2022 and are pushing for a first 15bps hike this summer (Hardt), other policymakers (i.e. Governor Glapinski) aim to keep interest rates low for the rest of the year to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery.
  • This morning, PFR president Pawel Borys (a state-owned financial group) said on TOK FM that rate hike may be needed in late 2021/early 2022.
  • Next policy meeting is on Wednesday June 9; market could start to take profit on PLN following the sharp appreciation we have seen in the past two months if participants realize that NBP will let inflation run hot in H2.
  • USDPLN has been trading sideways in the past two weeks, oscillating between 3.64 and 3.70; on the topside, resistance to watch above 3.70 stands at 3.77. On the downside, first support stands at 3.62.
  • Poland 10Y yield has been retracing lower in the past 10 days, currently trading slightly above 1.80%; next level to watch on the downside stands at 1.72%. On the topside, key resistance remains at 2%.
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