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THB: USD/THB Down, But Jan Lows Intact, Seasonals Less Positive In Feb/Mar

THB
EM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsThailand

Thailand is one of the few Asia Pac markets open today. USD/THB sits lower, last around 33.70/75, keeping us within recent ranges. We are comfortably sub all the key EMAs. with the 20-day trending down to 34.15 in latest dealings. Recent lows in the pair rest at 33.61, seen last week. 

  • Baht is broadly following USD trends, up around 0.55% so far in January. Most G10 currencies are up against the USD over this period. Lower US-TH government bond yield differentials have also helping, along with higher gold prices in the cross-asset space. Local equities are struggling for topside momentum though. Jan has still seen net outflows from local stocks and bonds by offshore investors.
  • Local data yesterday showed a slump in car sales for 2024, with declining loan approvals a headwind. This doesn't bode well for the domestic demand backdrop, although the level of car sales, is up from recent cycle troughs. Officials expect better growth this year compared to last well more broadly for the economy.
  • Dec manufacturing production, along with Dec trade figures, are out this Friday (as well as the overall BoP balance).
  • As Jan draws to a close, focus will shift to the outlook for the rest of Q1. Seasonality is less positive for THB through Feb/Mar. On average (using the past 10yrs as the sample period), THB has lost 0.70% in Feb and then 0.55% in March. This follows an average 0.80% baht gain in Jan. If tourism flows spill over into Feb of this year, it could be an offset to seasonal norms, a lot will also depend on the broader USD/tariff backdrop from the Trump administration.  
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Thailand is one of the few Asia Pac markets open today. USD/THB sits lower, last around 33.70/75, keeping us within recent ranges. We are comfortably sub all the key EMAs. with the 20-day trending down to 34.15 in latest dealings. Recent lows in the pair rest at 33.61, seen last week. 

  • Baht is broadly following USD trends, up around 0.55% so far in January. Most G10 currencies are up against the USD over this period. Lower US-TH government bond yield differentials have also helping, along with higher gold prices in the cross-asset space. Local equities are struggling for topside momentum though. Jan has still seen net outflows from local stocks and bonds by offshore investors.
  • Local data yesterday showed a slump in car sales for 2024, with declining loan approvals a headwind. This doesn't bode well for the domestic demand backdrop, although the level of car sales, is up from recent cycle troughs. Officials expect better growth this year compared to last well more broadly for the economy.
  • Dec manufacturing production, along with Dec trade figures, are out this Friday (as well as the overall BoP balance).
  • As Jan draws to a close, focus will shift to the outlook for the rest of Q1. Seasonality is less positive for THB through Feb/Mar. On average (using the past 10yrs as the sample period), THB has lost 0.70% in Feb and then 0.55% in March. This follows an average 0.80% baht gain in Jan. If tourism flows spill over into Feb of this year, it could be an offset to seasonal norms, a lot will also depend on the broader USD/tariff backdrop from the Trump administration.