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THB: USD/THB Sub 34.00, Higher Gold Prices/ Positive Tourism Flows Helping

THB
EM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsThailand

USD/THB is in the 33.90/95 region in latest dealings. We are sub all key EMAs, with the 20 to 100-day clustered back in the 34.30-34.40 region. Current levels for the pair are fresh lows back to mid Dec last year. Dec 11 lows were around 33.66 in terms of a potential downside target. Baht is up a further 0.50% today bettered by only MYR in the region so far today in terms of gains against the USD. 

  • The RSI (14) is getting closer to oversold conditions, with a 36.78 reading, which is the lowest since Oct last year.
  • In the last 5 trading days, baht is the best EM Asia FX performer, up close to 2.4% against the USD. A softer USD index backdrop over this period is helping sentiment, with early tariff fears from the Trump administration not materializing (although baht is generally seen less exposed on this front). 2025 to date, baht performance is more mid-range though compared to other USD/Asia pairs.
  • Strength in gold prices will also be providing a positive spill over, while net inflows have been more positive relative to equity flows in the past week.
  • Tourism anecdotes/high frequency data points also appear positive. The authorities noting a 18.6% y/y increase in tourist arrivals for Jan 1-19. In the past week, visitors from China were up 9.3% (see this BBG link).  
  • the data calendar contains Dec customs trade figures tomorrow. 
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USD/THB is in the 33.90/95 region in latest dealings. We are sub all key EMAs, with the 20 to 100-day clustered back in the 34.30-34.40 region. Current levels for the pair are fresh lows back to mid Dec last year. Dec 11 lows were around 33.66 in terms of a potential downside target. Baht is up a further 0.50% today bettered by only MYR in the region so far today in terms of gains against the USD. 

  • The RSI (14) is getting closer to oversold conditions, with a 36.78 reading, which is the lowest since Oct last year.
  • In the last 5 trading days, baht is the best EM Asia FX performer, up close to 2.4% against the USD. A softer USD index backdrop over this period is helping sentiment, with early tariff fears from the Trump administration not materializing (although baht is generally seen less exposed on this front). 2025 to date, baht performance is more mid-range though compared to other USD/Asia pairs.
  • Strength in gold prices will also be providing a positive spill over, while net inflows have been more positive relative to equity flows in the past week.
  • Tourism anecdotes/high frequency data points also appear positive. The authorities noting a 18.6% y/y increase in tourist arrivals for Jan 1-19. In the past week, visitors from China were up 9.3% (see this BBG link).  
  • the data calendar contains Dec customs trade figures tomorrow.