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THB: USD/THB Ticks Lower, Baht Still Outperforming In Dec

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USD/THB sits down around 0.30%, last near 33.75/80. We are close to recent lows (33.66) and comfortably south of the all key EMAs. The 50-day being the closest on the topside, near 34.15. 

  • The THB continues to outperform in Dec so far, up 1.5% against the USD, easily the best EM Asia FX performer (with PHP next best at +0.6%). Similar trends apply over the past month, with baht up over 3% for this period.
  • This leaves the baht modestly outperforming, the slightly rebound in US-TH yield spreads over this period.
  • The SET index is higher, but most of the recent gains were seen in early Dec. Offshore investors have been net sellers of local equities this month, although some offset has come from bond inflows.
  • Gold prices have also tracked higher (albeit not today), another tailwind for the currency. Positive seasonals may also be in play, given baht's tendency to rally firmly in Q4 (particularly Nov and Dec and also into Jan).
  • The BoT meets next week (18th of Dec). The market doesn't expect a change, with 10 economists surveyed by BBG all expecting a steady 2.25% outcome. 
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USD/THB sits down around 0.30%, last near 33.75/80. We are close to recent lows (33.66) and comfortably south of the all key EMAs. The 50-day being the closest on the topside, near 34.15. 

  • The THB continues to outperform in Dec so far, up 1.5% against the USD, easily the best EM Asia FX performer (with PHP next best at +0.6%). Similar trends apply over the past month, with baht up over 3% for this period.
  • This leaves the baht modestly outperforming, the slightly rebound in US-TH yield spreads over this period.
  • The SET index is higher, but most of the recent gains were seen in early Dec. Offshore investors have been net sellers of local equities this month, although some offset has come from bond inflows.
  • Gold prices have also tracked higher (albeit not today), another tailwind for the currency. Positive seasonals may also be in play, given baht's tendency to rally firmly in Q4 (particularly Nov and Dec and also into Jan).
  • The BoT meets next week (18th of Dec). The market doesn't expect a change, with 10 economists surveyed by BBG all expecting a steady 2.25% outcome.