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THB: USD/THB Touches Fresh Multi Month Lows, But Lagging Yen & Gold Gains

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USD/THB sits just up off earlier lows (33.535), the pair last near 33.59. We are still up a little over 0.20% for today's session in baht terms. Earlier lows were levels last seen in Nov last year. The pair is sub all key EMAs, with the declining 20-day last close to 33.81. A clean break under 33.50 could see 33.05/10 targeted, which lows from Oct 21 last year.

  • Still, THB is little changed over the past week, up only 0.10%, leaving the baht only modestly outperforming IDR and PHP. THB has lagged strong yen gains over this period (+1%), while also lagging the firm gold price trends as well, see the chart below (not gold prices are inverted).
  • There may be some local push back on sharply stronger FX levels, particularly with domestic demand still recovering from low levels.
  • We do have a BoT decision week as well, with on-going pressure from the PM and MinFin for fresh easing. The consensus, at this stage is for no change though, with the central bank seen likely to preserve policy space. 

Fig 1: USD/THB & Gold Prices (Inverted)  

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USD/THB sits just up off earlier lows (33.535), the pair last near 33.59. We are still up a little over 0.20% for today's session in baht terms. Earlier lows were levels last seen in Nov last year. The pair is sub all key EMAs, with the declining 20-day last close to 33.81. A clean break under 33.50 could see 33.05/10 targeted, which lows from Oct 21 last year.

  • Still, THB is little changed over the past week, up only 0.10%, leaving the baht only modestly outperforming IDR and PHP. THB has lagged strong yen gains over this period (+1%), while also lagging the firm gold price trends as well, see the chart below (not gold prices are inverted).
  • There may be some local push back on sharply stronger FX levels, particularly with domestic demand still recovering from low levels.
  • We do have a BoT decision week as well, with on-going pressure from the PM and MinFin for fresh easing. The consensus, at this stage is for no change though, with the central bank seen likely to preserve policy space. 

Fig 1: USD/THB & Gold Prices (Inverted)  

Keep reading...Show less