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ZAR: USDZAR Probing YTD Lows Amid Delayed Tariff Risk

ZAR
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

USDZAR is testing the year-to-date lows at 18.3022, trading just over 1% lower on the session as the USD Index sinks to its lowest level since mid-December. Ongoing strength for equities and spot gold trading close to cycle highs will have also contributed to a 1.8% recovery for the rand compared to Monday’s lows, factors which have assisted the broader EM FX basket.

  • US President Trump signed a measure yesterday ordering his administration to propose country-by-country reciprocal tariffs. However, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that the studies on the issue will not be complete until April 1, averting any immediate trade risk from the latest announcement and in turn providing some relief for EM assets.
  • Note that Trump issued an order halting all aid to South Africa earlier in the week – likely in a bid to punish the nation for adopting a new land-expropriation law – and therefore the delay to reciprocal tariffs could suggest that further action from the Trump administration against South Africa is unlikely in the very near term.
  • For USDZAR, a breach of the Jan 24 YTD low of 18.3022 would reinstate the recent bear cycle and open 18.2343 and 17.9992, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Dec 12 - Jan 13 upleg.
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USDZAR is testing the year-to-date lows at 18.3022, trading just over 1% lower on the session as the USD Index sinks to its lowest level since mid-December. Ongoing strength for equities and spot gold trading close to cycle highs will have also contributed to a 1.8% recovery for the rand compared to Monday’s lows, factors which have assisted the broader EM FX basket.

  • US President Trump signed a measure yesterday ordering his administration to propose country-by-country reciprocal tariffs. However, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that the studies on the issue will not be complete until April 1, averting any immediate trade risk from the latest announcement and in turn providing some relief for EM assets.
  • Note that Trump issued an order halting all aid to South Africa earlier in the week – likely in a bid to punish the nation for adopting a new land-expropriation law – and therefore the delay to reciprocal tariffs could suggest that further action from the Trump administration against South Africa is unlikely in the very near term.
  • For USDZAR, a breach of the Jan 24 YTD low of 18.3022 would reinstate the recent bear cycle and open 18.2343 and 17.9992, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Dec 12 - Jan 13 upleg.