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USTs / gilts move lower while Bunds remain supported on dovish ECB hopes

BONDS
  • Treasuries and gilts are off of yesterday's highs but Bunds have been more range-bound today and hit their highest level since early October this morning.
  • The German curve has been driven by a Bloomberg sources story which suggests a 50bp hike is more likely than 75bp from the ECB at its December meeting. This has also seen Euribor Whites move higher (in contrast to the moves seen) in SONIA / Eurodollar futures.
  • Both Treasuries and gilts have moved lower this morning ahead of the UK Autumn Statement (mini-budget). We have set out our expectations for the Autumn Statement in our preview here. The market will be focusing on both the new gilt remit and the wider tone of the statement. In terms of individual policies the market would like (but may not get today) more details on the replacement for the Energy Price Guarantee from April.
  • There are a number of Fed, ECB and BOE speakers later today as well as weekly claims data and US housing data.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-9 today at 112-29+ with 10y UST yields up 4.3bp at 3.735% and 2y yields up 1.3bp at 4.370%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.16 today at 140.54 with 10y Bund yields down -0.7bp at 1.987% and Schatz yields down -1.1bp at 2.035%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.24 today at 106.28 with 10y yields up 2.8bp at 3.170% and 2y yields up 5.9bp at 3.025%.
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