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Varga Downgrades Growth View

HUNGARY
  • The Hungarian finance minister Varga has cut the government’s GDP view for 2022, and now sees ‘at least’ 3-4% growth across the year – a downgrade relative to their prior view of 5.9%. The finance minister cited uncertainty surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as a surge in energy prices.
  • The NBH kept their one-week deposit rate unchanged at 6.15%, with this week’s HUF rally easing the pressure on the bank to tighten policy in the very near-term.
  • PPI data released this morning showed PPI rising at a 1.3% clip on the month, 22.4% on the year – another multidecade high for the annual PPI and the fastest rate of factory gate price rises since 1996.
  • Focus remains on this weekend’s election, with polling continuing to suggest a lead of around 5ppt for Orban’s Fidesz party. Undecideds are still thought to make up a sizeable portion of the electorate, keeping a political risk premium present in markets headed into the end of the week.
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