Venezuelan Electoral Guarantees Pave Way for Oil Sanctions Relief

Venezuela’s Maduro government agreed to electoral guarantees for its political opposition in the 2024 presidential election Tuesday – opening the door for possible US sanctions relief for its oil.

• The deal did not however lift bans on opposition candidates barred from public office as expected prior to the meeting in Barbados yesterday, mediated by Norwegian officials.
• International observers, including from the EU and UN will oversee the votes in next years Venezuelan election.
• A number of sources reported Monday that this deal was required to allow the US to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry. There has been no mention by the US or sources about what shape they would form.
• A statement by the US, EU, Britan and Canada released after yesterday’s agreement reiterated calls for the release of political prisoners, independence of the electoral process, freedom of expression and respect for human rights. It is not clear if further measures within these areas were required for the US to agree to oil sanctions relief.
• Regardless, the Biden administration’s stance towards Maduros government differs greatly to Trumps maximum pressure tactics of recent years.
• The deal reached in Barbados says each political side in Venezuela can choose its 2024 candidate according to its internal rules but did not reverse bans on some opposition figures - including Oct. 22 primary frontrunner Maria Corina Machado - that prevent them from holding office. This may be another sticking point for the US easing oil sanctions.
• Reuters reported last week that Caracas is in talks with the US to allow another foreign oil firm to take Venezuelan oil in return for debt – if Maduro resumed negotiations with the opposition.
• The company was rumored to be France’s Maurel & Prom.