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Very Little Change In Fed Path, Terminal In Dec After Switching Yesterday

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged from yesterday’s close, keeping to yesterday’s development of the terminal remaining at a similar level but technically being kicked back a month to December (cumulative +12.5bp to 5.46%).
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1.5bp Sep (unch), +11.5bp Nov (+0.5bp), +12.5bp Dec (unch).
  • Cuts from terminal: 37bp to Jun’24 and 103bp to Dec’24 (both unch). The first cut from current levels is still very close to fully priced with the June meeting.
  • The day’s limited data has seen the NFIB small business survey slightly miss expectations for overall optimism but within it, planned price increases almost fully unwound last month’s decline.

Source: Bloomberg

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