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Very Weak ADP Will Temper Nonfarm Expectations

DATA REACT

While the ADP is not a great guide to nonfarms, January's was a pretty bad report, missing expectations by nearly half-a-million jobs (-301k vs +180k expected)., and the weakest figure since April 2020 (which was -19.4m).

  • It will definitely further temper expectations for this Friday, especially given the Omicron factor involved (Leisure and Hospitality -154k but weak across the board).
  • Treasuries briefly touch session highs and USD session lows.
  • From the report: "The labor market recovery took a step back at the start of 2022 due to the effect of the Omicron variant and its significant, though likely temporary, impact to job growth. The majority of industry sectors experienced job loss, marking the most recent decline since December 2020. Leisure and hospitality saw the largest setback after substantial gains in fourth quarter 2021, while small businesses were hit hardest by losses, erasing most of the job gains made in December 2021."

Source: ADP

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