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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: VF Corp; Q3 (to Dec) results (x2)

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
USCredit BulletsHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletNorth America

(VFC: Ba1/BB)

  • We see little reason for the Mar-€26s to be left this wide - cash on hand already covers the remaining 25 maturity ($750m line).
  • The €28/29s (-5 today) may screen value to some - we are a tad uneasy given co has once again left guidance for the next quarter lacklustre and Vans is still falling (across all regions, at a similar pace ex US where signs of slowing falls - could be macro). Note in 2020 it was 40% of group sales (YTD 25%). Sun Choe was lifted from lululemon in May to fix the brand - we may not yet have seen her impact.
  • We see leverage approaching low 4-handle (net, excluding leases in EBITDA). Headroom to current ratings but not enough for any upgrades from the raters (our view).
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(VFC: Ba1/BB)

  • We see little reason for the Mar-€26s to be left this wide - cash on hand already covers the remaining 25 maturity ($750m line).
  • The €28/29s (-5 today) may screen value to some - we are a tad uneasy given co has once again left guidance for the next quarter lacklustre and Vans is still falling (across all regions, at a similar pace ex US where signs of slowing falls - could be macro). Note in 2020 it was 40% of group sales (YTD 25%). Sun Choe was lifted from lululemon in May to fix the brand - we may not yet have seen her impact.
  • We see leverage approaching low 4-handle (net, excluding leases in EBITDA). Headroom to current ratings but not enough for any upgrades from the raters (our view).