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VF Corp Spreads Elevated Ahead Of Earnings

CONSUMER CYCLICALS


  • VF Corp (Baa3[N]/BBB[N]), a name we’ve bulleted on several times (mostly related to their Christmas cyber-attack), is due to report Q3 earnings after the European close.
  • The US-based owner of brands such as The North Face, Timberland and Vans saw spreads widen in the wake of delays in ordering during their seasonal busy period.
  • Subsequent filings indicated they expected limited financial impact though BBG consensus forecasts see a 7.4% decrease in Rev with Vans in particular underperforming with an expected -23% YoY Constant FX Sales Growth.
  • The company ditched their FY revenue and earnings guidance at Q2, citing the poor performance of the Vans brand along with a weaker US wholesale environment, while reducing their FY FCF outlook from USD 900mn to USD 600mn.
  • Their shortest-dated EUR bond (26s) has unwound much of the widening seen in the wake of the cyber-attack though spreads remain at elevated levels in the wake of 2023 rating downgrades.
  • Recent management commentary has implied a conservative financial policy focused on cost-cutting and achieving gross leverage of 2.5x (BBG: Gross lev excl leases 4.9x as of Q2).

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